Government Squabbles Ahead of THAI Creditor Vote

May 10, 2021 Edward Dever

Concerns that Thai Airways is just a toy for members of the Thai Government to argue over are reinforced by claims that the Finance Ministry will not participate in any recapitalisation under its rehabilitation plan.

The current argument centres around whether THAI should once again become a state enterprise with the Ministry of Finance increasing its shareholding above 50%.

The reduction below 50% prior to THAI entering rehabilitation proceedings was largely an exercise in shuffling the excess shareholding to satellite Government-linked funds.

The Finance Minister appears to be in support of his Ministry regaining majority control of THAI. The head of the State Enterprise Policy Office (SEPO) is taking the contrary view, arguing that THAI is effectively a money pit and pouring more funds into it cannot be justified to taxpayers.

THAI's plan was scheduled to be voted on by creditors at a meeting on 12 May. Creditors seemed likely to support it given the prospects for THAI if the plan is rejected. However, the vote has now been delayed until 19 May.

Govt 'won't back' billion-baht THAI cash injection

May 2021

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Thai Airways - Negative Equity Until 2030

March 29, 2021 Edward Dever

Thai Airways is in the midst of its rehabilitation plan with a creditors' vote on the plan scheduled for 12 May 2021.

THAI's balance sheet insolvency has forced it to make a further disclosure to the Stock Exchange of Thailand as it faces delisting.

In their SET notice on 26 March 2021, THAI indicates that it will remain balance sheet insolvent until 2030. Given that THAI has a three year period to remedy its negative equity position, it admits that the Company may be delisted in due course from the SET.

THAI also gives further insight into its rehabilitation plan, disclosing that it expects a capital increase and creditors will have the option of a debt to equity swap.

It is not clear whether the Thai Government will participate in any capital increase or debt to equity conversion in order to maintain its shareholding in THAI,

Also unclear is whether creditors will accept equity in what may become a non-listed entity.

Meanwhile THAI is disputing around half of its liabilities by claiming that these amounts relate to future expenses and were incurred after the airline entered rehabilitation proceedings.

THAI is disputing around 192 billion baht (USD 6.3 billion) claimed by 48 lessors including BOC Aviation Ltd and SMBC Aviation Capital Ltd, and another 33 billion baht (USD 1.1 billion) that Rolls-Royce says it is owed for maintenance services.

The Thai Bankruptcy Act provides for disputed claims to be resolved by the Official Receiver with a right of appeal to the Bankruptcy Court for any aggrieved party.

THAI - SET Notice - 26 March 2021

Thai Airways disputes $7.4bn of aircraft lessor claims

March 2021

Political Risk - The Government Slot Machine That Never Pays Out

March 18, 2021 Edward Dever

In the 1990s, Bangkok embarked on three mass transit infrastructure projects - Hopewell, which was never built, and the completed BTS (Skytrain) and MRT (subway) systems. Arguably, Bangkok would have been better served by a single commuter transport network, preferably the MRT. Such a plan would have required Government departments to work together and a corruption-free system of government.

At the end of a long arbitration and court process following the cancellation of its project, Hopewell finds there is no guarantee that it will ever see compensation from the Thai government.

The latest hiccup in Hopewell's claim seems to be based on procedural errors relating to the Supreme Administrative Court's resolution in favour of Hopewell. The Constitution Court has ruled that these errors make the resolution unenforceable.

The Supreme Administrative Court's apparent inability to follow its procedural rules is hardly Hopewell's fault and it would be reasonable for Hopewell to contend that their claim shouldn't be denied due to the Court's errors.

But this is Thailand and it is likely that the Government is looking for any excuse to avoid paying compensation.

Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd, currently awaiting a decision in their arbitration case for compensation relating to the closure of the Chatree gold mine, will no doubt be watching developments in the Hopewell case with interest.

A win for Kingsgate in their arbitration case may not necessarily mean the end of their saga if the Hopewell case is an indicator of the Government's approach.

Hopewell saga bombshell - Constitutional Court reverses 2002 ruling

March 2021

Is The Thai Airways Rehabilitation Plan A Missed Opportunity?

March 3, 2021 Edward Dever

Media reports indicate that THAI's plan submitted on 2 March 2021 to the Bankruptcy Court in Bangkok does not deal with its massive debt burden. The plan apparently contemplates increasing THAI's debts.

THAI has around THB 410 billion (USD 13.5b) in debt.

It needs to raise around THB 50 billion (USD 1.65b) over the next two years.

This may be achieved through “borrowing, investment or debt to equity conversion” according to THAI. (Any debt/equity conversion would not raise new funds.)

The plan does not require haircuts or debt reductions, apparently out of fear that creditors may not approve the plan. Instead, THAI has asked for a three-year debt moratorium after which the debt will be repaid.

THAI's plan is to create a three year debt time out during which it will attempt to turn around the airline. It plans to achieve this via four steps including making it the airline of choice, expanding services, upgrading digital capabilities and improving operational and cost efficiencies.

The lack of balance sheet reform under the plan will remain an IED with a three year fuse. Worse, it looks like a missed opportunity.

There are two main reasons for using court-sanctioned rehabilitation proceedings in Thailand:

1. To protect a company from creditors while it restructures.

2. To implement balance sheet reform using the Bankruptcy Act's plan voting procedures to cram down creditors.

No doubt there are political issues at work but not using the Act's provisions to implement balance sheet reform does seem like a missed opportunity.

THAI's financial woes preceded Covid-19 and it seems unlikely that THAI will have such a change in its fortunes that, in three years, its debt burden becomes sustainable.

THAI has long been burdened by its vast array of aircraft and engine types so plans to reduce its types of aircraft from twelve to five and types of aircraft engines from nine to four are a step in the right direction.

THAI's creditors will meet on 12 May 2021 to vote on the plan.

Thai Airways seeks to raise B50bn

THAI - SET Notice Re Plan

March 2021

When Reverse Ghost Employees Emerge On A Restructuring

February 25, 2021 Edward Dever

Reports have emerged that Thai Airways has allegedly suffered fraud by employees claiming funeral benefit payouts for themselves while continuing to work for the company.

Since 2013, this alleged fraud is estimated to have cost THAI around USD 500,000.

A number of years ago, I was involved in a restructuring which was almost derailed at the 11th hour when it became apparent that a relative of senior management was still drawing a salary from the company five years after their death.

It is very odd that THAI's Human Resources Department does not cross check its payroll against employees who have "died" with resulting payouts by the Savings Cooperative for Employees of Thai Airways.

It is worth remembering that, apparently, THAI could not even provide a single comprehensive list of its frequent flyer program members as it entered formal rehabilitation proceedings.

Thai Airways employees accused of faking death to claim funeral payout

February 2021

Will Hong Kong Remain An Attractive Arbitration Destination?

February 10, 2021 Edward Dever

Some interesting comments on moves by companies to switch from Hong Kong as the governing law and place of arbitration in contracts in the wake of China's tightening grip on the Territory.

In contracts involving foreign companies and counterparts in South East Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore are often viewed as preferred independent arbitration locations. Any shift away from Hong Kong may be a boon for Singapore.

When acting for foreign companies, the method of dispute resolution is often crucial. In some jurisdictions, foreign arbitral awards may be enforceable upon registration whereas foreign court judgments can only be used as evidence in local civil proceedings.

It is understandable that companies may be nervous using Hong Kong as a place of arbitration when the long term implications of the changes in Hong Kong remain unknown.

Companies consider writing Hong Kong out of legal contracts

February 2021

Thai Airways - Final Deadline For Rehabilitation Plan

January 29, 2021 Edward Dever

Thai Airways has secured a second and final extension for submission of its rehabilitation plan to the Central Bankruptcy Court. The new deadline is 2 March 2021. (THAI - final deadline)

Work on the rehabilitation plan has not prevented THAI selling some non-core assets. THAI has announced that it has completed the sale of a 15.5% stake in Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services (BAFS) to Ratch Group for Bt 2.7 billion (US$90 million). THAI retains at 7.06% stake in BAFS.

The Central Bankruptcy Court approved the sale on 3 December 2020 with completion on 19 January 2021. BAFS is no longer an affiliate of THAI. (THAI sells BAFS)

Ratch Group is 45% owned by EGAT, the Thai government electricity generating authority, so the sale is somewhat of a shuffle amongst government related entities.

The treatment of creditors under the draft rehabilitation plan remains unclear.

January 2021

South East Asia Tourism - Darkness Before The Dawn

January 18, 2021 Edward Dever

A year ago, I wrote about Covid-19 and the potential decimation of Asia's tourism sector.

In hindsight, I underestimated the length of time it would take countries to get Covid-19 under control.

In the case of Thailand, a Covid outbreak in the past month centred on markets outside Bangkok, staffed predominantly by migrants, has resulted in a semi-lockdown. Tourist spots which had realigned towards the domestic market have taken a further battering. (How Thailand Was Caught Out)

Thailand has been largely unsuccessful trying to restart international tourism with a quarantine component. (Thailand - No-one Came)

Contrast this approach with Maldives which has been open for quarantine-free tourism for several months. (Maldives Monitors Arrivals)

Across South East Asia, tourism ventures are mothballed or dead in the water. Some companies still operating have opted to give up office space to save costs and are operating from serviced offices.

It is not all gloom and doom. Some OTAs are actively recruiting, seeking to replace some of the staff made redundant last year as they try to position themselves for economies reopening hopefully during 2021 as Covid-19 vaccination becomes more widespread.

There will be plenty of restructuring ahead. Not all tourism players will survive. New players will emerge and everyone will need to adapt to a post-Covid tourism world.

January 2021

Why Smaller Companies Choose Formal Rehabilitation Proceedings

November 16, 2020 Edward Dever

The rehabilitation proceedings under Ch. 3/1 of the Thai Bankruptcy Act have generally been utilised by larger companies. Think TPI, NTS Steel and, more recently, Pace Development and Thai Airways.

Given costs and time frames involved, why would a smaller company choose this restructuring route?

First, an automatic stay applies.

Under S. 90/12, all existing court proceedings are stayed and no new proceedings may be commenced. Property essential to business operations cannot be recovered. This may be critical to survival of the business. For smaller companies, this means essential leased equipment or factories cannot be seized.

Second, formal proceedings offer a new investor a clean slate.

Under Ch. 3/1, all creditors must file claims for repayment which are dealt with under the plan. Any investor then has a clear understanding of the business's liabilities. This may favour a company acquisition rather than an asset acquisition where 7% VAT would apply.

Third, debt to equity conversions are permitted.

As a general rule, the Thai Civil and Commercial Code (for limited companies) and the Thai Public Limited Companies Act (for public limited companies) prohibit debt to equity conversions. The exceptions under S. 90/42 of the Bankruptcy Act allow for an easier clean up of the balance sheet, subject to sufficient creditor approval when voting on the plan.

Where existing management does most of the work, including acting as the planner, it may be possible to keep the rehabilitation costs as low as possible. Limited numbers of creditors and general consensus between debtor and creditors would also limited rehabilitation costs.

November 2020

Nok Air Enters Rehabilitation Proceedings

November 5, 2020 Edward Dever

Airlines are flavour of the month at Thailand's Central Bankruptcy Court.

The Court has now approved the rehabilitation petition of Nok Airlines PCL, the budget airline part owned by THAI. This follows THAI's entry into rehabilitation proceedings earlier this year.

On 4 November 2020, the Court approved the appointment of Grant Thornton Specialist Advisory Services, Nok Air CEO Wutthiphum Jurangkool and three other board members to prepare the rehabilitation plan.

Creditors may file claims for repayment of their debts within one month of the Planner's appointment being published in the Government Gazette.

Nok Air gets green light to restructure debt

November 2020